Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
