Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
